A developing El Niño climate pattern is expected to intensify through 2026 and produce measurable shifts in solar energy resources across multiple regions of the world, according to analysis by Solcast, a DNV company, published in pv magazine.

Uneven Redistribution, Not a Global Trend

Rather than producing a uniform increase or decrease in solar irradiance globally, the emerging El Niño is anticipated to reorganize atmospheric circulation in ways that redistribute cloud cover and rainfall across different parts of the world. This redistribution is the core mechanism through which the climate phenomenon affects solar power generation potential — some regions stand to gain significantly more usable sunlight, while others face reduced irradiance during the same period.

The pattern aligns with historical precedents established during previous strong El Niño events, when shifts in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures cascaded into broader atmospheric changes with distinct regional fingerprints.

Regions Expected to See Solar Gains

Several major solar markets and emerging generation zones are positioned to benefit from the developing event. India, eastern Australia, and parts of Africa and Central America are among the areas where irradiance is forecast to increase relative to neutral climate conditions.

For India, which has aggressively expanded utility-scale and rooftop solar capacity in recent years, improved irradiance during an El Niño period could translate into higher-than-average generation output — a meaningful variable for grid operators managing supply forecasts and energy traders pricing power contracts over multi-month horizons.

Eastern Australia similarly stands to see clearer skies associated with the suppressed rainfall patterns that typically accompany El Niño across that part of the continent. Parts of Africa and Central America round out the regions where solar developers and asset owners may find resource conditions more favorable than long-term averages would suggest.

Losses Concentrated in South America and East Asia

On the opposite side of the ledger, South America and East Asia are identified as regions likely to experience reduced solar irradiance as the El Niño strengthens. In these areas, the same atmospheric circulation changes that dry out Australia and parts of South Asia tend to enhance cloud formation and precipitation, diminishing the solar resource available to generation assets.

For solar operators in affected parts of South America — a continent that has seen rapid solar buildout in countries such as Brazil, Chile, and Colombia — the forecast signals a period of potentially lower energy yields that could affect revenue projections and power purchase agreement performance. East Asian markets, including parts of China where large-scale solar farms are concentrated, may face comparable headwinds in resource availability.

Implications for Solar Asset Management

The Solcast analysis underscores a broader challenge facing the solar industry as installed capacity scales globally: climate variability driven by phenomena such as El Niño introduces interannual swings in generation potential that sit above the typical day-to-day and seasonal forecasting horizon but below the multi-decade timescales addressed by long-term climate projections.

For investors, lenders, and grid planners, accurately characterizing the probability and magnitude of El Niño-related irradiance shifts has practical consequences for financial modeling and reliability planning. A strong El Niño event can push regional solar yields meaningfully above or below the p50 generation estimates that underpin project financing assumptions, making climate-informed resource forecasting an increasingly important input alongside standard meteorological modeling.

Solcast indicated the event is expected to continue strengthening through 2026, suggesting the irradiance impacts described could persist and potentially deepen over the coming year rather than resolving quickly. The company did not specify in the available summary whether the current event is projected to reach the intensity thresholds associated with historically strong El Niño years, though the framing of the analysis around past strong events implies the potential for significant regional departures from baseline solar resource conditions.